Archive for the ‘Financial’ Category

Newsletter #2, 2011: Last week was brutal, but what can we expect going forward?

The S&P 500 was down 7.2 % last week, which was the largest selloff in 32 months! This selloff has in a little over a week wiped out USD 2.0 trillion, almost the same amount as the combined size of QE1 and QE 2. This just shows how fast asset values can deteriorate in a stock market downtrend. In other words this was a big event.

I have not sent out a newsletter for many months now, the last one was on March 25th, but I feel that the performance of the market over the last few weeks calls for another one now. Before I get into what I will discuss today I want to remind you to pay close attention to the model I use to calculate the turning points in the market. The model does not perform that well in a choppy market like we have had for most of this year, but in a longer time frame, as the chart below indicates, it has performed pretty OK.

Performance of the model since its inception in May 2008. The line is BLUE those days that the model indicates that we are in an UPTREND and RED those days that it indicates that we are in a DOWNTREND.

S&P 500 daily closing prices 

I am covering the following topics in today’s newsletter:

  • The implications of the US credit downgrade and why the US should attack Switzerland
  • Still no sign of leadership from Washington
  • Official numbers say that unemployment is falling, but does that really matter?
  • Is this market correction the start of another bear market?

Read More…

Newsletter #1, 2011: Market in DOWNTREND – What we can learn from Japan

You have not heard from me in a while now and that is because we have been in a continuous uptrend since December 7th last year when I sent out my last newsletter. After more than three months of uptrend the market entered a new DOWNTREND as of the close of Thursday March 11th. I sent out my short notice the next day and this is finally the follow up newsletter.

We will cover the following topics in today’s newsletter:

  • The newsletter is finally taking its first small baby steps into the www
  • A new downtrend and what it means
  • Emerging Markets gives indication of were we are heading
  • We have just witnessed the fastest doubling in the S&P 500 since 1936! But then see what happened next…
  • If the US was to see a repetition of 1937/38, maybe Japan could be a good place to put your money right now?
  • Japan might or might not be nice investment, but more importantly we have so much to learn from the Japanese
  • Everybody seems to be bullish on everything right now
  • The US housing market does not provide any supportive arguments for taking a positive stance regarding the future

Read More…

Newsletter #12, 2010 – Market in uptrend from Tuesday December 7th, 2010

Today we have the current gloomy topics that we will dive into:

  • Optimism reaches new highs – Not a sign of an ending bear market
  • Spain will soon be needing a bailout as well
  • In the US, as I have stated so often that everybody probably have heard me screaming wolf for several months now, the situation is not any better
  • We know what the Fed has been doing lately, but it is more interesting to see what they are actually saying
  • Copper as a stock market indicator
  • “Don’t touch my junk” – How US initiatives for increased safety leads to more death

Read More…

Newsletter #11, 2010 – Market in correction from Wednesday November 17th, 2010

I have limited the number of topics in today’s issue and made it into a little story for a change:

  • We are in a correction, but finally we had an uptrend that lasted more than a week
  • Business leaders are positive to the US and global economy…
  • …but the Fed and its disastrous last policy show signs of desperation…,
  • …with likely implications being those of a currency war – the fight for being the cheapest of the lot

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Newsletter #10 – Market in Uptrend

A pretty short addition this time, but it does contain some extremely important information like:

  • More (dark?) omens have been observed in the market over the past week
  • There is always something we can learn from history – a small study of the crash of 1987 and 2008

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Newsletter #9 – Market in Correction

Keep on reading to learn more about all these exciting stuff:

  • Back into a correction after economic activity indicates that stimuli has not created lasting improvements
  • The market just got a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, which significantly increases the likelihood of a stock market crash
  • Housing market is really starts to impresses on the downside – again
  • Nothing new with the US economy, it is still extremely weak; moving towards a broken back
  • Bonds at record low yields, is it time to exit?
  • As always some people view the stock market as extremely cheap, so should you maybe put your money there?
  • USD is headed for a great run relative to most other currencies
  • Gold looks like it could break to the downside, but still not confirmed
  • Pretty close to 1929
  • Talking about 1929 that was the start of long period if deflation, what is the current status on inflation vs. deflation?
  • Hey, by the way, did I mention that the US will go bankrupt?
  • China is heading towards trouble as well
  • And finally, as always: These are my current main thoughts on our outlook

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