Archive for June, 2012
After only three trading days the models switches back to downtrend. Already the day after the model had turned to uptrend we had a massive down day, a sign that highly increased the likelihood that the trend would turn around. The market is turning bearish in front of the European fiscal summit on Thursday, indicating that the market has little belief in any positive resolutions coming out it. I continue to be very negative to the prospects of Europe. Many of the EU countries are in a recession with high unemployment rates, but the major problem is the massive debt levels of EU governments and its financial system. It is a very high likelihood that confidence will evaporate, and the stock market with it. I continue to expect a significant global stock market crash. Although this is almost impossible to time preciously well ahead of time I think it will happen sooner rather than later; likely within the end of 2013.
The market switched to an uptrend today. One of several promising signs is that the market has been going up recently despite negative news. The Fed also announced today that they will extend operation TWIST (replace short-term bonds with longer-term debt) by $267 until year end.