Archive for March, 2011
We entered a downtrend on March 10th, but we have had enough positive market action over the last week to finally shift the market into a new uptrend yesterday Tuesday March 29th. The market shook off downbeat headlines yesterday as consumer confidence (data from the Conference Board) fell more than expected, hurt by higher food and fuel prices and concerns about the job market. The Conference Board’s chief economist said that this “will likely impact spending decisions.” What is important is not what economists like her are saying but rather what the market is saying, and the market is now saying (through my models) that it is in an uptrend. Act by it until we enter a new downtrend again. But use caution despite the new uptrend. Buy only the top stocks in the best industry groups as close as possible to proper buy points. Control your exposure by scaling into positions as a stock moves in your favor.
The Case-Shiller home price index was another data point that turned in its worst one-month performance in a year. The 20-city gauge fell 3.1% between January and February. “The housing market recession is not yet over,” the head of the committee at S&P said. Just wanted to remind you that the fundamentals still do not look good for the housing market.
You have not heard from me in a while now and that is because we have been in a continuous uptrend since December 7th last year when I sent out my last newsletter. After more than three months of uptrend the market entered a new DOWNTREND as of the close of Thursday March 11th. I sent out my short notice the next day and this is finally the follow up newsletter.
We will cover the following topics in today’s newsletter:
- The newsletter is finally taking its first small baby steps into the www
- A new downtrend and what it means
- Emerging Markets gives indication of were we are heading
- We have just witnessed the fastest doubling in the S&P 500 since 1936! But then see what happened next…
- If the US was to see a repetition of 1937/38, maybe Japan could be a good place to put your money right now?
- Japan might or might not be nice investment, but more importantly we have so much to learn from the Japanese
- Everybody seems to be bullish on everything right now
- The US housing market does not provide any supportive arguments for taking a positive stance regarding the future
You have not heard from me in a good while. That is not because I have stopped sending out my newsletters. It is rather because we have enjoyed a long and healthy uptrend. The last uptrend started all the way back on December 7th which was the date of my latest newsletter. I only send out my newsletters when there is a change of market trend. We saw such a change yesterday.
We started getting strong indications on Monday that the market would turn negative soon. The market action yesterday triggered new sell signals in the rest of my indicators “officially” putting the market in a DOWNTREND.
I will send out the latest newsletter on Monday March 14th, this email is just to let you know that the market direction has changed so you can make necessary adjustments to your portfolio.