I indicated in my last post on May 24th that the market action that triggered my models into a downtrend was also action that we sometimes see near bottoms in the market. This turned out to be one of those times. The market has proved to be strong since then, breaking through its 50 day moving average and yesterday spiking up in significantly higher volume. This turned enough of my indicators to buy signals to indicate that we are now in a new UPTREND.
But as there were some cautionary signs to the downside last week, so there are in this uptrend. We typically like to see higher percentage gains in the indexes than we did yesterday. Another cautionary factor is that we are now in a third year bull market, and market action typically tend to be choppy with modest gains in such years.
Monitor leading stock for further indication to the strength of this new uptrend.
The strong market action yesterday was set off by indications that a new plan to save Greece was near. The market has chosen to party, at least now in the short-term. And I hope investors enjoy it while it lasts because I am certain (to the degree that anyone can be certain about anything regarding the financial markets and government action for that matter) that helping out Greece will do nothing else than cover over the cracks of the underlying structural problems which in due course will implode and cause even greater harm further down the road. I am confident that neither Greece, Portugal nor Spain will not be able to recover its debt ridden economies without going through debt defaults on a grand scale first, which will have severe global implications.
But for now, lets enjoy this last uptrend which is likely to take the markets above recent highs.
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